The African Development Bank has cautioned that the Middle East conflict is weighing heavily on Africa’s economic trajectory in its 2026 African Economic Outlook report. The bank projects real GDP per capita growth will dip to 1.9% in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025, before recovering to 2.2% in 2027—still well below the 3.5% threshold needed for inclusive growth. Regional impacts vary: East Africa faces a notable growth slowdown due to supply chain disruptions, while Central Africa benefits from elevated commodity prices. The bank forecasts that continent-wide inflation will average 10.4% in 2026, above earlier projections, while noting that currencies in 27 African nations have depreciated against the dollar. The AfDB recommends that central banks adopt prudent monetary policies and governments deploy temporary, targeted social protection measures to cushion vulnerable households from rising food and energy costs.
African Business
