Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party’s landslide victory in the latest national election positions him to pursue ambitious political and economic reforms. For one, analysts expect Abiy to push for greater centralization of power, potentially restructuring regional boundaries, even as ethnic tensions simmer and conflict continues with Tigray and the Oromo Liberation Army. If this happens, the federal government will gain greater influence over Ethiopia’s regional administrations. However, it risks putting the federal government on a collision course with regional actors in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and other areas, which may view deeper centralization as a threat to their autonomy. Economically, Abiy is expected to continue market-oriented reforms that have attracted international support and investment. Another major issue is Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access, which could become a defining strategic objective. Ultimately, Ethiopia’s long-term stability will depend on balancing economic modernization with political inclusion and managing regional grievances that continue to fuel insecurity.
African Business