East Africa’s Refinery Race Revives Regional Rivalries

Competing refinery projects in Kenya and Tanzania are reviving decades-old rivalries between East African nations over who controls the region’s energy infrastructure. In 2016, a pipeline deal between Kenya and Uganda collapsed, with the latter eventually deciding to route its crude through Tanzania instead. Ten years later, a new refinery planned for Kenya, backed by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, has once again intensified tensions. Following Dangote’s decision to build the refinery in Lamu, Uganda and Tanzania responded by agreeing with Vitol Bahrain to develop a reported $20 billion energy hub in Tanga, Tanzania, including refining, storage, and distribution facilities. According to analysts, mistrust between Kenya and Tanzania dates back to competing post-independence ideologies and enduring competition to be the region’s commercial gateway. Despite the rivalry, the economic case for a regional refinery is strong, given that East Africa imports most of its fuel despite having substantial oil reserves.