The Fitch Ratings office sign displayed on a prominent city building, representing financial and credit rating services.
Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive from stable while maintaining the country’s long-term issuer default rating at B. The agency pointed to stronger foreign exchange reserves, which climbed to $54.9 billion by late September from $32 billion in April 2024, along with ongoing reforms and easing inflation. Fitch expects economic growth to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026, compared with 4% in 2025, while average annual inflation is projected to fall to 15.4%. Improved oil production and Dangote Refinery operations have also reduced demand for imported fuel. However, high debt-servicing costs remain a major constraint. Fitch projects the fiscal deficit will widen to 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and expects the general government’s interest-to-revenue ratio to average 27% between 2026 and 2028. Still, Nigeria could receive a rating upgrade if it sustains its reserves, lowers inflation, and generates stronger non-oil revenue.