A line of African military personnel in uniform marching in formation on a dirt path, with flags of different African countries waving in the backgrou.
The expanding war between the US, Israel, and Iran is intensifying geopolitical rivalries across the Horn of Africa. The region is highly vulnerable to conflict spillover, particularly in Djibouti and Somaliland, where the US, UAE, and Israel hold strategic interests. Following Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland, Yemen’s Houthi rebels threatened to target any Israeli presence there. This recognition also deepens an alliance between Israel, the UAE, and Ethiopia—which is aggressively seeking Red Sea access—further isolating Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory. Meanwhile, the broader Middle Eastern war is temporarily deterring a brewing conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as distracted superpowers struggle to manage overlapping global crises. Still, the existing situation favors Ethiopia and Somaliland as they secure powerful international backing from Israel and the UAE to advance their strategic and territorial ambitions. In contrast, Somalia faces severe diplomatic isolation, while the broader region risks being dragged into a devastating, multi-front proxy war. However, importing Middle Eastern proxy conflicts into the fragile Horn of Africa threatens to ignite overlapping regional wars and exacerbate catastrophic humanitarian crises.
DW