Islamist militant violence across Africa’s Sahel region is on course to reach unprecedented levels this year, according to new data from the conflict monitor Acled, even as global terrorism deaths have fallen overall. Incidents involving al-Qaida and Islamic State-linked groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger surged from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025, with 2,145 already recorded this year. If this trend continues, it is possible that the Sahel will record more than 9,000 security-related deaths across the three countries in 2025, according to the Global Peace Index. Analysts say the groups have largely localized their ambitions rather than pursuing international attacks, unlike al-Qaida’s historic global objectives.