An August attack on an opposition rally in Homa Bay, which killed two people and injured 46, has highlighted Kenya’s growing problem of “political goonism”—politicians paying unemployed youth to disrupt rivals’ events. The Kofi Annan Foundation estimates an 84% probability of election-related violence in 2027, driven by ethnic patronage networks, youth unemployment, and inconsistent policing. Despite the identification of hundreds of local gangs across the country, investigations rarely lead to the arrest of the politicians accused of organizing the violence. Experts say that this reflects weak enforcement, which dates back to colonial-era suppression tactics. The pattern has repeated across nearly every election since 1992, from deadly 2007–08 post-election clashes to more recent crackdowns on Gen Z-led protests. Analysts warn that without stronger policing, hotspot mapping, and accountability for political sponsors, Kenya risks a repeat of violence as the 2027 vote approaches.