Youth-led protests over water and power shortages toppled Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina in late 2025, evolving into a broader revolt against what researchers describe as a “captured state.” Scholars argue former leaders exploited constitutional powers, packed institutions with loyalists, and neutralized anti-corruption courts, while profiting from illegal rosewood, vanilla, and gold trades. A military government led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina then seized power and promised a two-year transition, but concerns are growing that elections scheduled for 2027 could be delayed, particularly amid expanding Russian influence. Meanwhile, roughly half of citizens surveyed distrust the protest movement itself, and a long-delayed national dialogue meant to address constitutional reform faces questions about the independence of its church-led oversight. Analysts say lasting reform will require changes to political finance, public services, and institutional accountability, not simply replacing one group of elites with another.