Niger’s Failed Coup Reveals Junta Vulnerabilities

Niger’s military government survived a coup attempt in August, but the episode exposed a deeper problem: the soldiers who helped bring the junta to power may now be frustrated by its failure to deliver security. Since the junta took over in 2023, jihadist violence has worsened, with attacks reaching Niamey and military casualties approaching 2,000 in 2025. Meanwhile, junior officers and frontline troops face shortages, poor conditions, and limited influence over strategy. Together, these factors create incentives to challenge senior commanders. Similar pressures are emerging in Burkina Faso and Mali, where military rulers have also struggled to contain insurgencies. The immediate threat is to regime stability. The longer-term risk is a cycle in which prolonged insecurity fuels internal dissent, potentially producing further coup attempts.