By Wayne Hennessy-Barrett – Founder & Executive Chairman, 4G Capital
We are no longer preparing for the VUCA era. We are living in it. Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity are now the norm, and likely to remain so.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has moved through one structural shock after another: Covid in 2020, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and now the Iran war of 2026. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent energy markets into another convulsion, with oil moving from broadly manageable levels towards crisis pricing. The consequences are familiar: inflation pressure, foreign exchange volatility, higher transport costs, weaker consumer purchasing power, and renewed uncertainty for policymakers, investors and businesses alike.
As always, these shocks fall unevenly. Growth markets feel them first and hardest. Fuel matters more. Food matters more. Imported inflation bites more deeply. Currency pressure moves faster through household budgets. For the small trader, wholesaler, kiosk owner, pharmacy, agro-dealer or distributor, global volatility is not an abstract headline. It is tomorrow morning’s stock price, transport cost and working-capital gap.
But this is precisely why the lazy conclusion about Africa is wrong. True, the short-term impact of energy, inflation and FX shocks is real. But the deeper reality is that African growth markets remain among the most resilient and under-capitalised economies in the world. Even after downward revisions, African growth still compares strongly with slower, older, more saturated markets. The long-term drivers remain intact: young populations, urbanisation, digitisation, local enterprise formation, deepening supply chains, and a vast unmet demand for productive credit.
In turbulent times, investors should not simply seek shelter. They should seek sectors where volatility creates need, where need creates demand, and where disciplined operators can serve that demand profitably.
That is why MSME working capital finance is one of the strongest sectors to back in this cycle.
When input prices rise, small businesses do not stop trading. They need more capital to buy the same stock. When distributors raise prices, retailers need larger facilities. When fuel costs increase, inventory turns and cash cycles come under pressure. The right response is not to withdraw credit from the productive economy. It is to provide the right-sized capital, at the right time, to known customers with proven repayment behaviour.
For B2B working-capital providers, higher buy-at and sell-at prices translate into demand for higher loan limits and larger facilities, often within broadly stable risk parameters. The winners are not speculative digital lenders chasing anonymous acquisition at any cost. The winners are operators with deep roots in their markets, strong local data, trusted customer relationships, disciplined credit infrastructure and real people on the ground.
This is where 4G Capital has built its business. We provide unsecured working-capital loans and enterprise training to micro, small and medium enterprises in East Africa. Our model is deliberately practical: technology where it improves speed, productivity and underwriting; human engagement where trust, training and repayment culture matter. We call it “touch tech” because both sides are essential.
Covid proved the point. When economies locked down and many lenders pulled back, our customers still needed to trade. They needed stock. They needed advice. They needed someone who understood their business at the counter, not just on a spreadsheet. We stayed close to them, supported responsible refinancing and continued serving viable enterprises through the crisis. The lesson was simple: in stress, proximity is not a cost. It is an asset.
The same principle applies now. 4G Capital’s current growth assumptions remain intact. Approximately 95% of our on-lending capital is in local currency, materially reducing direct FX mismatch risk. The business has demonstrated enduring profitability and organic growth, with further acceleration expected from technology-enabled productivity improvements. Our new systems are designed to support scale, improve underwriting, increase efficiency and unlock new distribution channels while preserving the credit discipline that has underpinned the company for more than a decade.
The impact case is equally strong. MSMEs are the backbone of employment, livelihoods and local commerce. They are not a niche. They are the economy. In our markets, they feed families, move goods, create jobs and sustain communities. 4G Capital is now one of the most trusted brands serving this segment in East Africa and, by loan volumes, is positioned among the largest MSME lending providers across the Kenyan banking sector.
This year, we expect to cross $1 billion in cumulative loans disbursed. That is not just a milestone for the company. It is evidence of repeat demand, customer relevance and operational depth in a market still dramatically underserved.
The opportunity ahead is far larger. Africa’s MSME financing gap is estimated at roughly $500 billion. Closing it will require banks, DFIs, fintechs, local capital markets, insurers, guarantee providers and specialist lenders working together. But it will also require businesses with the scars, systems and trust to operate through volatility rather than only during benign cycles.
That is the central investment case. In calm markets, many models can look attractive. In turbulent markets, quality is revealed. Businesses that depend on cheap foreign capital, loose underwriting or shallow digital acquisition will struggle. Businesses that fund productive trade, know their customers, lend in local currency, price risk responsibly and remain close to the real economy can grow stronger.
The VUCA era is not ending. Investors should stop waiting for normality to return. The better question is which sectors are built for this world. In Africa, MSME working-capital finance is one of them. Companies that can combine capital, knowledge, technology and trust will not merely surviv
