Rising tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves far beyond energy markets, posing a growing threat to agriculture across Africa. Gulf nations supply much of the ammonia, urea, and phosphate fertilizers that African farmers depend on, and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz shipping has already pushed fertilizer futures up more than 10%, with average global prices projected to rise by up to 17% in early 2026. Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Mozambique face the sharpest exposure, while West African cocoa producers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are also vulnerable. For smallholder farmers with razor-thin margins, reduced fertilizer use means lower crop yields and eventual food price rises. The crisis underscores Africa’s vulnerability to global supply shocks—and the urgent need to build more resilient, local fertilizer production systems.
African Business
