Sub-Saharan Africa closed 2025 on its strongest economic footing in over a decade, with faster growth, falling inflation, shrinking deficits, and fresh sovereign rating upgrades. However, these gains are now under threat due to the Iran war, according to the International Monetary Fund. The organization has trimmed its growth forecast for the year to 4.3%, pointing to surging oil prices, climbing shipping costs, and weakening tourism. Inflation, which had fallen to 3.4%, is also reversing course and is expected to top 5% by year’s end. The IMF warns that oil importers and fragile states will bear the heaviest burden, with a structural decline in foreign aid compounding the pressure on the continent’s most vulnerable economies. The IMF’s message is both cautionary and urgent: Africa’s 2025 gains were real and hard-earned, but the policy choices made right now will determine whether they survive the storm.
African Business
