As Kenya hurtles toward the 2027 general election, the familiar spectre of political violence has returned with a vengeance. Rival camps are openly trading accusations of deploying armed “goons” — hired thugs — to intimidate opponents and disrupt rallies, raising the grim possibility of a repeat of the deadly 2007-2008 post-election crisis that claimed more than 1,300 lives.
The latest flashpoint erupted last weekend in Kisumu and Eldoret, where rival supporters clashed with stones, machetes and crude petrol bombs. At least 14 people were injured and two polling stations torched in what police are calling “orchestrated thuggery.” Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has accused President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) of paying goons to break up its campaign events. Ruto’s camp fired back, claiming ODM youth wings are behind the attacks and demanding arrests.
Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen condemned the violence but stopped short of naming perpetrators. “We will not allow a handful of criminals to hijack our democracy,” he told journalists in a hastily convened press briefing. Human rights groups are less optimistic. The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) documented 37 incidents of politically motivated assaults in the past month alone, many involving unidentified men on motorbikes — the classic signature of goon squads.
Political analysts say the stakes are higher than ever. With the economy still reeling from high inflation and youth unemployment hovering near 40 percent, both sides are courting the same restless young voters. “Goonism is cheap, effective and deniable,” said Dr. Mutahi Ngunyi, a veteran political strategist. “It’s cheaper to hire 50 thugs than to build real policy platforms.”
Opposition figures claim the government is turning a blind eye. Martha Karua, a former justice minister now allied with Odinga, told me in an exclusive interview: “We have video evidence of police standing by while UDA goons beat our supporters. This is not law enforcement; this is complicity.
”The government denies the charges and points to its own wounded supporters. Police have arrested 23 people linked to both sides, but rights groups say most are low-level foot soldiers while the paymasters walk free.
The 2022 election was relatively calm thanks to a power-sharing deal between Ruto and Odinga. That truce is now in tatters. Odinga’s recent tour of the Rift Valley drew huge crowds but also violent counter-demonstrations. In one incident captured on viral video, a UDA youth group set fire to an ODM campaign vehicle while chanting Ruto’s campaign slogan.Civil society is sounding the alarm.
The National Cohesion and Integration Commission has warned that ethnic rhetoric is creeping back into campaign language, particularly in the volatile Mt. Kenya and Nyanza regions. Churches and mosques have issued joint pastoral letters urging calm, but many worshippers say they are already stockpiling food in anticipation of trouble.
International partners are watching closely. The U.S. Embassy and the European Union have quietly increased funding for election observation missions and conflict early-warning systems. A senior Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “Kenya cannot afford another cycle of violence. The region is already unstable — another meltdown here would send shockwaves across East Africa.”
As the campaign season heats up, ordinary Kenyans are caught in the middle. In the slums of Mathare, where goon violence is a grim seasonal job, 28-year-old mechanic Joseph Omondi told me he has already been offered 5,000 shillings (about $38) to “protect” a rally. “I need the money for my children’s school fees,” he said, “but I don’t want to kill my neighbour again like in 2007.”
With 18 months until polling day, the window for de-escalation is narrowing. Constitutional experts are urging both sides to sign a fresh code of conduct, but trust is in short supply. For now, the streets remain tense, the goons remain on payroll, and Kenya holds its breath.
