New research cross-referencing USAID disbursements with conflict data across 870 African regions has linked the abrupt reduction of US foreign aid since early 2025 to rising armed conflict across the continent. According to the study, areas that previously received significant USAID support experienced a 6.5% relative rise in conflict risk, with battles up nearly 7% and conflict-related deaths rising roughly 9%, since the aid was suspended. The withdrawal of foreign aid led to worsening economic conditions and weaker social safety nets in these communities, which armed groups have exploited. The victims of the abrupt aid withdrawal and resulting violence have been vulnerable communities left at the mercy of armed groups. Even worse, the study argues that areas that have seen a spike in violence are at risk of becoming long-term conflict hotspots. To help countries build resilience against future shocks, researchers argue that aid should be rebuilt around human capital development and UN peacekeepers rather than simply restoring previous aid models.
The Conversation
