Mozambique faces a looming security crisis as Rwanda signals it may withdraw troops from Cabo Delgado, where they have helped contain an Islamist insurgency since 2021. The potential exit—triggered by possible European Union funding cuts—threatens to reopen space for militants targeting civilians and energy infrastructure, including projects led by TotalEnergies. At its core, Cabo Delgado’s insurgency has never been purely military; unresolved poverty and resource exclusion fuel recruitment. Without Rwanda’s stabilizing presence and meaningful investment in local governance, a decade of fragile security gains could unravel rapidly, with devastating regional consequences. With multilateral interventions deemed historically ineffective, Maputo may be forced to seek an expanded bilateral military agreement with neighboring Tanzania. The potential withdrawal exposes the dangerous limitations of relying on foreign forces for national counterinsurgency, especially those reliant on external donor funding.
The Conversation
