Farmers across Ivory Coast are sounding the alarm. Below-average rainfall in the world’s top cocoa-growing regions last week is threatening the crucial mid-crop harvest that runs from March to August. Persistent dry spells could shrink bean sizes, reduce quality and cut overall output at a time when global cocoa prices are already elevated.
The rainy season normally runs from April to mid-November, yet many areas received far less rain than the five-year average. In Daloa, only 16.4 mm fell; in Soubre, just 10.9 mm. Farmers told Reuters the critical window until late May will determine whether the mid-crop finishes strong or collapses.
“If there isn’t enough rain, the beans will be very small and of poor quality,” warned Albert N’Zue, a farmer near Daloa. Others echoed his concern, noting that harvesting is intensifying but pod development is lagging.
The implications stretch far beyond West Africa. Ivory Coast produces roughly 40% of global cocoa supply. Any shortfall in the mid-crop risks pushing already high world prices even higher, squeezing chocolate makers and consumers from Europe to Asia. The 2025-26 season has already been marked by weather volatility, disease pressure and ageing trees, making this dry spell particularly unwelcome.
Yet farmers are not panicking yet. Some report larger pods that could still deliver decent volumes in May and June—if the rains return. The government and industry bodies are monitoring closely, with calls for swift irrigation support and climate-resilient farming techniques gaining urgency.
For millions of smallholders who depend on cocoa for their livelihoods, the stakes are personal. A poor mid-crop means lower incomes at harvest time and tougher choices for school fees, healthcare and food security.
Global buyers are watching nervously. After years of supply squeezes, another weather-induced shortfall would keep the cocoa market on edge. The coming weeks of rainfall will decide whether Ivory Coast’s mid-crop becomes a story of resilience or regret.
