The Gambia’s former dictator, Yahya Jammeh, who ruled for 22 years through fear and brutality, has announced his intention to return from exile. This prospect, once considered unthinkable, is now plausible due to a significant shift in regional dynamics. Notably, the once-decisive ECOWAS bloc that forced him out in 2017 is now weakened by internal crises and coups. Furthermore, Jammeh’s host country, Equatorial Guinea, is undergoing a leadership transition, which may leave the exiled ruler without his powerful patron. While Barrow’s government vows to arrest him if he returns, pockets of loyalty persist, and rural nostalgia fuels support. This convergence of factors means the deterrents that once kept Jammeh at bay are fraying, setting the stage for a potential and deeply destabilizing political crisis.
The African Report
