Sudan’s civil war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, ongoing since April 2023, has displaced over 14 million people and left half the population facing severe hunger. Despite international mediation by the Quad—comprising the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—peace efforts have stalled due to three main obstacles. First, the Sudanese army and the Quad disagree sharply on whether to include Islamist factions in future talks. Second, the warring army and paramilitary forces have completely incompatible goals for the country’s military structure. Finally, the mediating Quad itself is divided by the competing interests of its member states. Amid this, recent advances by the paramilitary in Darfur have heightened fears of partition, making a comprehensive settlement unlikely. For now, a short-term ceasefire appears to be the only realistic outcome, while a lasting political resolution remains out of reach.
The Conversation
